Yesterday was my first attempt at trading pre-match soccer prices. The idea is simple, find a current Betfair price that is higher or lower than the true price of the outcome, then back or lay the Betfair price and hedge out for a profit when the price corrects.
Simple idea, harder in practice.
I picked 2 trades; Portugal 1-0 and England 2-0. Wanting to maintain liquidity in my personal account for other trades that day, I picked 2 trades where the Betfair price was higher than the true price and backed at the highest available price 4 and 3 hours before kick-off respectively.
I was expecting both prices to move in 2 ticks, so set 50% of my stake 1 tick below my entry point and my hedge at 2 ticks for the balance. Nothing happened, apart from that I found myself continuously staring at a ladder that wasn't moving!.
About and hour before kick-off I got some movement in the England game, unfortunately in the wrong direction. Patriotic England supporters didn't get behind the team pre-match in the way that I expected and the price drifted out 2 ticks to my stop loss figure at 3 ticks above. The Portugal game just bounced between my entry point and 1 tick above for the whole time. I traded out at 15mins before KO for a 1 tick loss.
Summary
Two trades isn't nearly enough to make an opinion on this technique. I'll be trying again on the weekends premiership trades but will enter closer to kick-off at 2 hours to go on the matches with biggest liquidity. I'll continue playing with small stakes until I have more confidence.
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