Pre-Match Trades - Sat 19 Nov

I'm having a paper trade on my predictions of market movements on the early and late kick-off games in the Premiership this weekend. I'll update the movements in the price each day and may have a trade to scalp a tick or 2 on the morning of the game, if the market seems to be doing what I expect. Mystic Meg time!

I've attached a spreadsheet of the misalignments in price and my prediction of where the Betfair market will move.

Friday - Norwich v Arsenal - Sat 19 Nov - 12:45pm

As it stands I have no confidence in any of the Betfair numbers as the liquidity is still very low. Certainly not a trade for me here. The strongest indicator is for the price to come in on Norwich for the home win and for the Draw to drift. Lets take a look at where the market is tomorrow.

Thursday - Norwich v Arsenal - Sat 19 Nov - 12:45pm


Taking a look at the market 24 hours later and not much has changed. Liquidity is still very low for a premiership game so not much to read into yet. 3 prices have moved the way predicted (Green) and 2 in the opposite direction (Red). I'm not going to pass judgement yet but the market with the highest liquidity has moved in the direction indicated.

I'll take another look on Friday.

Swansea v Man Utd.  - Sat 19 Nov - 17:30pm