Pakistan got a off to a good start with a boundary off the first ball. The last time they did that they were 3 for 11. Can history repeat itself? I doubt it but if the wickets do fall I'm covered with lays at 1.46 and 1.56 in play against an opening price of 1.75.
Sri Lanka bowl well and keep Pakistan's run rate very low with no runs from 22. This low run rate should mean that wicket when/if it comes should move the price a lot more.
25/1 - Hafeez goes for 14 and the price swings up to 1.80. I put in a back for 1/3 stake to at 1.77 to keep some lays in play in-case of a second wicket. The run rate is still low at 3.80 against a required run rate of 4.36. Which compared to Sri Lanka's run rate of 4.64 is making Pakistan look very average. Still the price move's in so I'm gong to reload my lays at 1.56 and 1.46.
51/2 Shafiq is out LBW and I get the price swing I was hoping for. Pakistan are out to 1.95 and I'm matched at 1.91 for half of my new lays. That leaves two thirds of my maximum stake in play to take advantage of another wicket. There is a temptation to hedge out now for £100 green but there is a long way to go and I'm now green to 1.24 and I do expect another wicket. I'll consider further lays but nothing now.
20 Overs gone and Pakistan are in a good position they need 140 from 180 balls. They don't need to take any chances at this point and are playing for singles. Whilst the run rate is still low they have plenty of overs remaining. This is driving the Pakistan price in and with it my green. I'm 20 ticks above scratch but I'll need a Sri Lanka wicket fairly soon to push the price back-up. I've been guilty of taking my eye of the game and have found myself on the wrong side of a price movement. I can hedge out now for a small profit and possibly re-lay while the price is low.
My feeling now is that I've missed my opportunity. Pakistan's position is such that even if there is a wicket the price will only move 10 ticks.
113/3 Just as I was thinking I'd miss my opportunity a wicket falls and the price move more than I thought with an upward swing of 24 ticks allowing me to get 1/3 of my stake out at 1.5.
113/4 You wait all day for a wicket and 2 come along in 2 balls! Malik goes for a duck! Price is out to 2.18 and I'm thinking of heging out and switch to a lazyman with a locked in green. Pakistan hit a 4 before I make my mind up and the price moves into 1.90! Doh! I'm hedging out 1/3 at 1.95 and back in the green with £65 on Pakistan and £128 on Sri Lanka. Time for some what if planning.
Pakistan are a fraction above the required run rate with 6 wickets in hand and my feeling is that they will win. A lay on Sri Lanka Seems the safest bet. I could do with a wicket to give me a better price. Now will I get one?
Nothing as yet and my in-decision has cost me an opportunity. The Sri Lanka price has moved out to 3.00 making a lay uneconomical. A back on Pakistan is now my best option. The risk will be placing a a big green on Pakistan and only a small green on Sri Lanka then losing. A wicket will allow me to even the green with a bias on Pakistan. That's my preference. Now where's that wicket?
I'm going to put a limit on this. I'll wait until 1.35 on the Pakistan price for the wicket and if I haven't got it I'll hedge out for £80.99. No I won't. Pakistan are going to win this I'll back them at 1.35 and put 98% of my green on them.
1.35 has come before the Wicket. I have put in my hedge and my money on Pakistan who require 62 from 84 with 6 wickets in hand. If I lose this I shall remind my self that £80 guaranteed is better than £120 but only if I'm right.
The bet was a winner! £108.46 green and the gamble paid off. Not a bad trade and some good experience to take forward to the up coming games.
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| An uneven green book pays off for an extra 30% |
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