I had high hopes of a profitable trade on this match after good success in my previous trades. Sri Lanka won the toss and elected to bat. This was bad for me as I was hoping for a low lay on the batting side and a couple of quick wickets. Their starting price of 2.36 however was too high for my liking so I decided to stay out until their price came. I took the opportunity to lay some money on Pakistan while they were low as part of a longer trade.
Typically, because I wasn't on them Sri Lanka lost their opening pair in quick succession and their price jumped out to 3.45! That would easily have paid for the liability on the lays. C'est la vie. Cricket though is a long trade and no need to panic. I fully expect Pakistan's price to move out and and Sri Lanka's to move in. I will though resist the temptation to lay and back opposite ladders as this will be a recipe for disaster if the unexpected happens. Always 'expect the unexpected'!
32/3 Told you so. Had I backed Sri Lanka and layed Pakistan, I'd be in real trouble now. Sri Lanka are back out to 3.50 and Pakistan in to 1.35. I layed again at 1.36 and may have to leave these lays in until Pakistan bat. I expect Sri Lanka to steady the ship now and with Matthews waiting to come in I feel comfortable I'm on the right side of the trade. Obviously that won't happen now I've said it!
46/4 So much for steadying the ship! I didn't expect to see Matthews so soon. Sri Lanka out to 4.5 and Pakistan into 1.29. My cheeky lay at 1.26 wasn't matched but I don't see that as problem. Sri Lanka's run rate isn't too bad at 4.5 but they can't really avoid another quick wicket.
147/4 Solid batting partnership between Sangakkara and Matthews has brought the Sri Lanka price right back in. 16 Overs remain and I'm back in the green. I've put in an ask at 2.36 to back Pakisatan to reduce my liability. Assuming that is matched then my lays on Sri Lanka at 1.76 and 1.56 should come in for an overall green book. Just in time for Pakistan's bowlers to takes some wickets and bring their price in for the 2nd innings.
Batting power play. A nervous time for me. Sri Lanka will want to push on now for a total which will put Pakistan under pressure. The risk will be wickets. Both sides are now evens so a time to watch rather than enter the market. The Sri Lanka run rate has begun to drop putting pressure on the Pakistan price. I don't feel that my 2.36 is going to be matched or that Sri Lanka will come in. I'm going to green up now and will lay Pakistan if they drop below SP ahead of the second innings.
164/5 Great timing! Just matched as Sangakkara is caught for 78. I'm now green on both sides but see problems for Sri Lanka. Sangakkara really needed to get to 100 in partnership with Mathews. Once again a batting power play has cost a wicket. Sri Lanka are on for 215 at the current run rate. I don't think that'll be enough, so we're going to see Matthews taking more risk. I expect a wicket. Which will give a lower price against which to lay Pakistan.
176/6 Wicket! I'm getting better at this reading the game lark! Mendis bowled for 2. Pakistan into 1.50. If Matthews can stay on strike then a chance for Sri Lanka to up the run rate. Putting in lay asks at 1.56 and 1.46 in case of a wicket..
180/7 Wicket! Oh dear. Sri Lanka have lost Matthews. This could be bad news. Both lays taken as the market dropped to 1.45. Putting in another Lay ask at 1.26 as Sri Lanka sit on the verge of collapse. They'll need something special to get above 200, or even see out the overs!
218/9 (50.0 overs) So Sri Lanka have seen out the innings with 218. Not an impressive score by ODI standards, however no score over 200 has been chased down in the series. Sri Lanka will need to bowl out of their skin but all is not lost.
For me the innings provided a green of £40.35. With 4/4 profitable trades. It could have been a lot more had I not been so stingy on the lay price on the batting sides but overall I'm happy with the result after switching my strategy at the start and not panicking when things went against me. I have 2 lays in play on Pakistan at good prices which I shall leave in place. I'll be topping up the lays on the batting side at the start of the second innings and hoping for Malinga and the Sri Lanka bowlers to do the business.
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