I had a successful trade on the 2nd ODI between these two sides and I'm looking to continue that in today's match.
Pakistan won the toss and elected to bat. In the last match, Sri Lanka made a strong bowling start with 3 wickets for 11. I didn't expect that to happen and missed the opportunity to lay Pakistan to full stakes before the early wicket.
I don't expect Pakistan to make the same mistake twice but in case they do I'll be laying 50% of my stake at the start then in chunks up to my maximum stake at layed at 1.36.
Pakistan have made an excellent start. 100/0 at 20 overs. With a real shot at a new record for an opening partnership in a ODI as their run rate has steadily improved. As it stands I have a massive green on Sri-Lanka and my red hedge-able figure has been creeping up. I feel comfortable that my lay at 1.36 will be profitable and my lays at 1.46 and 1.56 should be at least scratch. I'm concerned that my lays at 1.66 and 1.75 are vulnerable given Pakistan's building total.
I'm in two minds as to whether to add in an extra lay at 1.35 to give me some more profit to offset any losses if Pakistan don't collapse and the price stays below their SP. I'd like to see another boundary from Pakistan to see if the price drops down from its current level where £20K is holding it up.
A six from Pakistan. The market moves 4 ticks. I feel their is a wicket coming as Pakistan are turning up the pace with some big hits. Another six and 4 more ticks. I think that the market will bottom at 1.15 so have put in an ask at 1.16. The question is "Will there be a wicket before I'm matched?"
Yes. Market dropped to 1.21. The wicket only pushed it up 8 ticks to 1.29. I'm hopeful that the new batsman will struggle and we get a couple of quick wickets and a new batting partnership. Sri Lanka have missed 4 catches frustratingly.
Finally a catch and the 2nd Wicket falls. Market out to 1.35 but as we have two new batsman in, there's a good chance for Sri Lanka to turn on the pressure and start pushing the price out. At the very least they should be able to slow the run rate and force Pakistan to take more risks to capitalise on a good start.
A 3rd wicket and my 1.36 trade is into profit which brings my hedge-able red figure into a more manageable level. I've got to let it run to get to profit. The batting power play and Sri Lanka have brought their fast bowlers in the hope of a couple of wickets from the new batsman.
4th Wicket and I'm tantalisingly close to a green book. Sri Lanka have slowed the run rate to a predicted 242 which is certainly a chase able total for Sri Lanka.
5th Wicket, a complete Horlicks from Pakistan and their captain is run-out. Real chance for Sri Lanka to restrict the Pakistan runs. Now hovering on scratch but I need to leave the bet to run to bring home a profit.
9 Overs remaining and Pakistan are chasing 250. If I let the bet run beyond the end of the innings then I'll be vulnerable to an early Sri Lankan wicket. I'd be relying on them starting well to push the Pakistan price out. I'm not comfortable with this so may take scratch unless the opening stats for Sri Lanka suggest other wise. Pakistan's opening moved the price in 50 ticks but I think that'll be an ask for Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka's opening pair scored just 29 in the first ODI and 105 in the second for an average of 67. It was the bowlers who won the 2nd ODI for them. I not feeling overly comfortable letting the bet run into the second innings although the pitch looks better for the batsman. I'll consider a trade out for scratch or a loss if need be.
The market is steaming in on Pakistan into the last 5 overs as the momentum swings back to them. Can't help thinking their price is lower than it should be.
6th Wicket. The market hasn't recovered as high as I would have expected and I'm back in the Red. Sri Lanka are to high at 3.15 to consider a lay in the second innings at this point.
7th Wicket. 234/7 at 47 Overs and back to scratch a quick wicket now and we're in business. It seems my opening lays in the hope of a quick wicket are with hind sight too high. 1.75 and 1.66 didn't feel high at the time. Pakistan are over 250 which is the highest score of the series and should give them the win but 1.42 seems too low and the price should come out if Sri Lanka can score well from their opening pair.
I've put in a a hedge at 1.56 for scratch and I'll revisit in the second innings.
8th Wicket and not matched. Frustrating. Not much money between me and my price and a big gap below it.
End of the innings Pakistan 257/8. I'm hoping for a market correction over lunch to reflect more accurately Sri Lanka's chances.
Pakistan traded as low at 1.21 with £75K traded at 1.22.
The market did correct over lunch and my hedge was accepted for a green of £2.72. Which was good as Sri Lanka's top batsman Tharanga was bowled for 4 and Pakistan's price went down to 1.35 which would have been VERY bad had I still been in the trade.
So overall a small profit 4 winning trades, 2 losing trades and 1 scratch. Good lessons learnt.
I'm not writing of Sri Lanka just yet but at 3.05 and under 100K liquidity I won't be rushing to get involved.
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