My strategy is to lay the batting side and take advantage of the upswing when a wicket falls and the market hopefully over reacts.
I need to keep an eye on Sri Lanka's price as I won't consider getting involved above 1.76. I'm also looking at the run rate as in the 1st Innings Pakistan's average of over 5.14 meant that the price did not move as much as I expected when their wickets fell. It seems that the lower the run rate the greater the reaction of the market to a wicket.
For the time being I shall be watching but not getting involved.
A good example of market over reaction at the first wicket. Pakistan's price came in form 1.58 to 1.34 before recovering to 1.6 within an over.
A good run rate from Sri Lanka is bringing their price. There may be an opportunity to trade.
Interestingly, had a I let my initial trades run then they would have all been winner and I'd have a very healthy green. That though was not my strategy.
With both teams scores now at evens a lazy man trade could be effective.
Covering 2 strategies here;
- Lay the batting side
- Lazyman
Putting Lay's in on Sri Lanka at 1.76 and 1.56. When 1.76 matched will Lay the same on Pakistan. When 1.56 on Sri Lanka is matched I will put the same on Pakistan.
If there is a wicket before Pakistan is matched then I can hedge out for a profit and relay. If there is no wicket and I'm matched on Sri Lanka, then after the wicket I can wait for Pakistan to be matched for a Lazyman lock in or just trade out on a Sri Lanka. If the wicket falls before I'm matched, that's probably it for this trade.
Matched on Sri Lanka at 1.76. Lay request in for Pakistan at 1.76. Pakistan are now slowing Sri Lanka's run rate.
Sri Lanka are now past 1.56 without Pakistan being matched so I am now switching to a lay the batting side strategy at 1.36 and keeping 1.76 on Pakistan in case of a wicket swinging the odds back in their favour.
Wicket. my 1.36 wasn't matched, but the up swing was 40 ticks to 10 above my top lay at 1.76. So I now have 3 options.
Back to a laying Sri Lanka but a bit higher this time in a gap at 1.43 and 1.31.
Both matched and laid of at 1.76, leaving the lazyman in play.
Lazyman has worked hedged out gone back for second bite.
Argh! Mistake! double clicked my lay bet on Pakistan so put on double stake and before I could cancel it a wicket fell and it was matched. Still green overall so shouldn't panic.
2 options. Back Pakistan at 1.55 to go back to where I was or lay Sri Lanka again at 1.76 for a profit.
Put in asks for both. Then a wicket fell and Pakistan came in to 1.25. I can hedge out for small green now or hope for a swing back to Sri Lanka.
Starting to look like too much for Sri Lanka so I'm going to get out now.
No. I'm going to wait for 1.55. Matched.
£49.86 which but for the click of a mouse could have been £85.00. Still green is green.
Summary
That could have worked very well but for a mistake with a double lay stake. I could have let it run and probably been OK but HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY and I'm glad I got out. The second innings was far more profitable than the first with 7 profitable trades, 1 loss and 2 scratch. The price on Sri Lanka came in far further than I expected even after the early wicket and I was able to lay almost at the bottom of the market at 1.31. Another profitable cricket trade with a combination of strategies working as the market ebbed and flowed.
Matched on Sri Lanka at 1.76. Lay request in for Pakistan at 1.76. Pakistan are now slowing Sri Lanka's run rate.
Sri Lanka are now past 1.56 without Pakistan being matched so I am now switching to a lay the batting side strategy at 1.36 and keeping 1.76 on Pakistan in case of a wicket swinging the odds back in their favour.
Wicket. my 1.36 wasn't matched, but the up swing was 40 ticks to 10 above my top lay at 1.76. So I now have 3 options.
- Cash out
- Cash out partially and hope for another wicket
- Let it run
Back to a laying Sri Lanka but a bit higher this time in a gap at 1.43 and 1.31.
Both matched and laid of at 1.76, leaving the lazyman in play.
Lazyman has worked hedged out gone back for second bite.
Argh! Mistake! double clicked my lay bet on Pakistan so put on double stake and before I could cancel it a wicket fell and it was matched. Still green overall so shouldn't panic.
2 options. Back Pakistan at 1.55 to go back to where I was or lay Sri Lanka again at 1.76 for a profit.
Put in asks for both. Then a wicket fell and Pakistan came in to 1.25. I can hedge out for small green now or hope for a swing back to Sri Lanka.
Starting to look like too much for Sri Lanka so I'm going to get out now.
No. I'm going to wait for 1.55. Matched.
£49.86 which but for the click of a mouse could have been £85.00. Still green is green.
Summary
That could have worked very well but for a mistake with a double lay stake. I could have let it run and probably been OK but HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY and I'm glad I got out. The second innings was far more profitable than the first with 7 profitable trades, 1 loss and 2 scratch. The price on Sri Lanka came in far further than I expected even after the early wicket and I was able to lay almost at the bottom of the market at 1.31. Another profitable cricket trade with a combination of strategies working as the market ebbed and flowed.
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| All worked out green in the end but could have been better. |
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