ODI Trade - Lay Sri Lanka - first innings

Dilshan won the toss and he put his side into bat. I felt the opening price of 2.36 was a little too high for an opening lay on the Sri Lanka. Hoping the batting price would come in I put in an ask of 2.00 for half my normal stake as the initial liquidity was low. After 9 overs I was matched and then put in 25% stake lays at 1.9 and 1.8. My 1.9 was matched and the price was down to 1.85 when the first wicket fell at 57/1.

The decision to lay at 2.00 proved to be the right one as I was able to hedge 60% of my stake at 2.16 as the market settled after Dilshan was bowled. The market went out to 2.2 so not much left on the table. I reseeded lays at 2.0 and 1.9 for full stakes this time as the liquidity had improved.

The second wicked fell reasonably quickly for 13 balls as Sangakkarra gave Razzaq an easy wicket, caught and bowled. Pakistan opted for a bowling power play, so opted to let 75% of my remaining 40% run locking in a little more profit at 2.76.

2.00 now seemed too low for any further lays but I opted to watch the new batting partnership before adding any new lays comfortable than I still had money to cover me for a further wicket with a green hedge figure right down to 1.32. The Pakistani bowlers kept on the pressure and started to peg back Sri Lanka's run rate to under 4.00 which started to hold up the price. I decided to re-lay in chunks at 2.6, 2.5 and 2.4 and 2.3 in the hope off a mini batting recovery before the next wicket.

At 25 overs the Sri Lanka price was at 2.80 with predicted innings score of 179. Sri Lanka need to pick up the batting rate to have any chance of a good score. When (if) they change up a gear they'll be vulnerable to a wicket. I'm hoping for a couple of boundaries to bring in the price before I lay again decided to cancel my 2.3 and 2.4 and lay at 2.7 instead.

Wicket came at 94/3 and took the price out to 3.5. I missed the upside there from an unmatched lay at 2.7 but caught the swing from my original lay. I locked in a further 25% of my 40% original lay (creating a green book) and hoped for a batting recovery (which Sri Lanka need) before relaying. Cautiously hoping for a 20 tick move to 2.80 for my next lay. Matched at 2.8 then 2.4 and 2.00 my next chunk. At the end of the Power Play which saw Sri Lanka come in from 3.5 to 2.2 where it held. I decided to make my final lay and hope for a batting collapse as Sri Lanka took more risks to try and secure a decent total.

The 4th wicket fell but only moved the price out 5 ticks, 5 below my next lay. I need another couple of wickets to be able to trade out before the end of the innings. 5th wicket fell and let me me lock 60% of the 5 tick move form my last lay of 2.20. Then another 20% at 2.36.

Feeling a bit exposed with £140 layed as Sri Lanka keep picking off singles and into the last 5 overs and a fairly static price. Surprised, Sri Lanka aren't higher as they chase a fairly low total. Hoping for a wicket and move out in the price, or it'll be necessary to take the available green to trade the Pakistan innings. A Sri Lanka wicket gave a welcome drift to the price allowing me to hedge out all the remaining lays at 2.0, 2.2 and 2.4 for profit.

My only liability now is at 2.8 where a wicket is required to make that a profitable trade also. A six followed by a wicket didn't move the price out enough so I let the market settle and green up for a net £27.28 at the end of the innings. 4/5 profitable trades. The only one I got wrong was the lay at 2.8 which I thought at the time was cautious!

Going into the second innings I feel more comfortable to go with a higher opening lay as liquidity is now topping £4.5M on Pakistan and the opening figure is 1.7. Interestingly that is only 3 ticks lower than their starting price after Sri Lanka achieved what I though was a low total of 235/7.