Football Trades

Looking tonight at 4 International matches. The focus is on the televised matches with the highest liquidity:

Croatia v Turkey

Croatia have probably done enough after their 0-3 away win but Turkey has Gus Hiddink at the helm so I wouldn't write them off. That said they don't travel well winning just 1 match away from home in the group stages and that was against Kazakatan. Croatia are unbeaten at home only dropping points to Greece. Croatia seem capable of scoring at will with 11 out of their last 5 and 3 goals in 2 of those games. Turkey have got nothing to lose and Hiddink will be asking some fringe players to step-up and prove their worth. If Turkey come out all guns blazing they'll be vulnerable on the break and I expect Croatia to take a first half lead. I'll be backing 2-1 on the correct score line and laying my stake after the 1st goal, hedging out after a second as the price comes in. For insurance I'm laying over 1.5 Goals for £25% liability of my back stake.

Update: Completely different to what I expected. A 0-0 draw.  With the score 0-0 at HT I greened-up on the insurance lay of under 1.5 for £30 and hedged out of the 2-1 score line for a net loss of £27.00. The benefit of the insurance bet once again proved it's value. Had it worked it would have been a great trade as it was I was in the acceptable loss range.

Ireland v Estonia

Ireland were in a different class to win 0-4 away from home and are heading for a party unless something goes horribly wrong. Estonia as a side would struggle in league one if they were a club side so I have little doubt that Ireland will be in party mood and this could be one way traffic in front of a jubilant home crowd. I'll be laying under 4.5 goals and hoping for a goal fest. As insurance I'll be backing Under 2.5 for 40% of my lay stake trading out to cover the liability of the lay bet at around 15mins. After that the goal fest can commence!

Update: That all went went for 15 mins with Ireland putting on all the pressure but not converting as the under's price came in. I hadn't quite covered my lay liability so laid off in chunks when Ireland opened their account. This left me green on under's with a small overall red and massive green on + 4.5 goals. So far so good only Ireland couldn't hit the target. I never had the opportunity to trade out and reluctantly let the trade run for a £12 loss.

Portugal v Bosnia

This was a tight fixture last week with both sides giving a nervy performance. My feeling is that this will continue as an under performing Portugal won't want to concede. I expect them to come through eventually with a goals towards the end of the first half and possibly more in the second. I'll be taking an insurance bet with Victor Chandler for a goal in the first 27 mins and trading the 0-0 scoreline to from 10 mins to half time to green-up on the CS. Maximum liability will be £20.

Update: Goal Fest! Portugal got off to a flying start at 8 mins before the 0-0 scoreline had even moved a tick! The bet was over for me at that point with a massive red on Betfair but a good insurance pay form VC. I lost my maximum liability £20. When they got to 3-2 I felt Bosnia would go all out for an equaliser and Portugal would score. As I was waiting for my correct score lay to be matched the goal went in that was enough for me. Portugal went on to score 2 more. 6-2 the final score.