2nd Test - Sri Lanka v England

I'm laying the draw from the start in this test for half stakes. There are mixed weather reports with a 40% chance of rain during the first 3 days. The rain though seems to be at night with fine days. If it does rain during the day the draw price should come in and may present a better price to lay.

Australia v India CB Series ODI

Taken a look at the stats ahead of this match with a focus on the Brisbane ground.

The average opening in a ODI played there (this century) is 235 with a low of 115 and high of 294.

So I'll take 235 as par for the opening side today.

Interestingly the average opening score from which Australia win is 199 so even a big score can be chased down. The pitch should be good for runs, as a domestic match last week saw 285 runs almost chased down.

 India have a good record against Australia at the Gabba with two wins but Australia are unbeaten there in 5 since 2008 (India).

I don't think this will change my strategy but it's good to have a ground specific data.

The series is a lot tighter than I, (and probably Australia) thought with a win separating all three sides. Australia are point behind India who top the table. In their first rain effected meeting it was all Australia as India failed to chase down 216, but in the second meeting India chased down 269 to win by a single run on the last ball.

In between, Australia have had a narrow victory and humbling (bonus point) defeat in their matches with Sri Lanka who've also lost and drawn with India which it makes it really hard to pick a winner.

The bookies have Australia as 1.66 favourites which feels too short but it all depends on  which Australia turns up.

India seem to be finding their form as Australia lose theirs and for me India's 'captain cool' just has the edge over Ponting's men.

Hopefully this will be close.

Rugby League Hcap Trade

I'm keeping an eye on the televised rugby tonight (Manly v Leeds). 

I played a number of successful hcap lazyman trades last week and I'm looking to repeat that. Liquidity will be key though I'm also concerned that the tight +/- 4.5 Hcap may keep the money in the match odds market.

Currently £3.5k matched. If that can get to £50k then a trade @1.76 will be the order of the day for me.

Welsh Open Snooker

Yesterday I made a mistake in trying to force the Lazyman trade in two matches. I read back my notes and said I wouldn't do this but I ignored my own advice and lost. The matches I picked were actually very close. Stevens was just 1 shot away from forcing a decider and a winning trade and Tom Ford threw away plenty of chances to put Lee under pressure. The problem here was the format, 4 frames is just not enough time to recover a trade if a player takes a 2-0 lead as was the case in both these matches. I shall not be trading these matches in the future with this strategy.

Today is much better and I can see the Lazyman working well in the two lunchtime sessions.

13:30 - Ronnie O’Sullivan 2.02 v Judd Trump 1.96 - H2H 3-4

The bookies are split on this one with half putting Ronnie as fav and a -1.5 hcap. The others have Judd as fav with a -1.5 hcap. I think Judd's the man to win this after destroying Bingham yesterday and he's in with a real chance of lifting the title.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)

13:30 - Shaun Murphy 1.99 v Mark Allen 2.00 - H2H 5-2

Another split opinion from the bookies on the -1.5 hcap line. The head to heads are in Murphy's favour and he won their last meeting in a decider.  I'm hoping it will be close again. Allen is in probably the better form of the two and I fancy him to edge it.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Full-fat stakes)

19:00 - Stephen Maguire1.98  v Mark Selby 1.98

Looking at the odds this looks like a layzman trade BUT for me it seems risky. I refer to my note from yesterday - 'note to self - Maguire outside bet for world championships'. Selby is not carrying the mantle of World #1 with any ease and the quicker he losses the top spot the quicker he'll return to form. Maguire on the other hand is in rude form and if he can just become a little more clinical in his finishing he could be a world beater.

Trade

Lays @1.76 on both. (Low-fat stakes)

Embrace the risk

Great practice trading the cricket this morning. Put myself in a great position which I managed to reverse and then reverse back. Made more money in 15mins of Tennis than 5 hours of cricket!! I need to embrace the risk and accept that there will be periods of liability during a trade.


I need to back myself more that I know what I'm doing and relax through trades to take the bigger profits. 

Pre-Match Trades - Tue 7 Feb

Pre-match Footie Trading 

I'm trialling a software tool that highlights differences in the Betfair CS markets and what the true price should be. It's a long-term trade with only a couple of ticks available but if it can be done in the background that's great. 

Today I made 2 trades

1. Birmingham v Portsmouth - Back 1-1 @8.6 then lay @8.2 - 2.5 hours to get matched. 
2. Ath Bilbao v Mirandes - Lay 1-0 @ 7.6 then back @ 8.2 - 2 hours to get matched on the lay, 4.5 hours to get matched on the back. 

T20 Cricket - Australia v India Feb 1 (08.30)

India are coming of the back of 3 straight test defeats as they take on an Australian side where most of the team are fresh from the Big Bash T20 League which finished on Sunday. The odds strongly favour the home side who are bouncing around the 1.60 mark.

I'm not so convinced that this will be as one sided as the bookies suggest. India have the better T20 pedigree and the Aussie side is far from the finished product. The Indian selectors have moved away from their rigid (immovable) selection policy for the Test series and the large 17 man squad will feature some young players keen to secure a position for the World T20 later this year.

There will be some great talent on display in the form of Australia's batting legend David Warner and the recently recalled Brad Hogg who was in scintillating form during the Big Bash series. For India Tendulkar and Kohli will be the men to watch.

I think Australia will win this but I envisage some good trading opportunities along the way tomorrow morning.

Update: Australia did win. I felt that that 171 for the first innings with the short boundary was a below par score and fancied India to have a chance for their first win of the tour. They started brightly but the bowling strength of Lee and Hogg was too much and their challenge petered out. I've a feeling that Friday's game will be closer but India will need to find more to be able to win.